Donald Trump on a tarmac
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‘..have me up, BY A LOT’: Donald Trump rabidly denies polling numbers that foresee his defeat

Donald Trump does not seem to like the recent polls coming out. A new IOWA poll put Trump losing to his opponent, Kamala Harris, during the 2024 election. Trump’s way of dealing with it is to just lie and say that that isn’t true, as he’s wont to do.

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The Selzer poll is widely respected. When it stated that Harris would beat Trump in the state, polling 47% to Trump’s 44%, the former president did not take that kindly. He went on to truth social to yell about how much he’s done for farmers and how they love him. He also shamed the poll itself, saying that it wasn’t close at all and that the poll was done by a “Trump hater.”

“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network. “In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT.”

He went on to yet again, talk about how farmers love him. “I love the farmers, and they love me. And they trust me.” Trump is a billionaire from Queens, New York who has never worked on a farm, as far as I am aware. But if Trump were to lose the race in Iowa, it would be the first time in his political career that he did not take the electoral votes from the state.

The last time Iowa went blue was for Barack Obama

Part of what makes the Selzer poll so fascinating is that back in 2008, Ann Selzer (who it is named after) predicted that Barack Obama would take the Iowa Caucus and beat out Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. We obviously know that to be the reality of the 2008 election.

Since, Obama won Iowa in both the 2008 and 2012 election. When it came to Clinton vs. Trump, the state turned red and stayed that way for the Trump vs. Joe Biden election. So the Trump campaign clearly had Iowa on their list of states they thought were theirs if Trump’s reaction to the poll is anything to say about it. If he won the state the two elections prior, he must have thought it was a done deal. But those farmers can see what’s up!

We don’t know for certain whether or not the Selzer poll is correct. It is widely regarded for its accuracy and given how Ann Selzer predicted Obama’s nomination over Clinton, it does have merit. And wouldn’t it be great if Iowa voted blue in another historic election? The 2008 election elected the first Black president into office. It’d be nice to see Iowa turn blue to elect the first Black woman into the presidential office.

For now, it is just fun to know that Trump is big mad about the fact that the Selzer poll has him losing.


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Rachel Leishman
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Rachel Leishman (She/Her) is an Assistant Editor at the Mary Sue. She's been a writer professionally since 2016 but was always obsessed with movies and television and writing about them growing up. A lover of Spider-Man and Wanda Maximoff's biggest defender, she has interests in all things nerdy and a cat named Benjamin Wyatt the cat. If you want to talk classic rock music or all things Harrison Ford, she's your girl but her interests span far and wide. Yes, she knows she looks like Florence Pugh. She has multiple podcasts, normally has opinions on any bit of pop culture, and can tell you can actors entire filmography off the top of her head. Her current obsession is Glen Powell's dog, Brisket. Her work at the Mary Sue often includes Star Wars, Marvel, DC, movie reviews, and interviews.