Trump promised peace in the Gulf but delivered chaos. Now Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is hijacking ships under his ‘ceasefire’
Iran calls Trump’s bluff, again.
Iran just seized two more ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the chaos President Donald Trump promised would never happen is now spiraling out of control. The Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and the Greek-operated Epaminondas were both stopped by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and towed to shore, marking the first time Iran has taken control of ships since the war began on February 28.
According to The Guardian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator, made it clear on X that reopening the strait is “impossible” while the U.S. and Israel keep breaking the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, with about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied fossil gas passing through it during peacetime. Right now, it’s anything but peaceful.
The U.S. and Iran are both running separate blockades, and the economic fallout is already hitting hard. Germany slashed its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.5%, while Greece announced €500 million in aid for households and farmers struggling with skyrocketing fuel prices. The UN’s maritime agency says around 20,000 seafarers and 2,000 ships are stranded in the Gulf.
The longer this drags on, the worse it gets
Trump’s approach to the crisis has been anything but consistent. On Tuesday, he threatened to start bombing Iran, telling CNBC’s Squawk Box, “I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. We’re ready to go. The military is raring to go.” Just hours later, he backtracked, saying he wouldn’t attack but would keep the blockade in place.
It’s the latest in a series of about-turns that have left everyone scratching their heads. The U.S. president has been unable to contain the economic and diplomatic fallout, and instead of forcing Iran to back down, his policies have led to Tehran shutting down the strait entirely.
The seizures come just days after the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Indian Ocean. Iran called that move “piracy” and promised retaliation. The ship, the Touska, was boarded by U.S. Marines after it ignored warnings to stop near the Gulf of Oman.
Trump gloated about the interception, saying the ship “did not go well for them” after the U.S. Navy “blew a hole in the engine room.” The Touska is on the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions list, but Iran’s military warned that the seizure would not go unanswered.
Peace talks to be held in Pakistan this week were stalled
A Pakistani official said that everything was ready but Iran never confirmed its attendance. The U.S. team, led by Vice President J.D. Vance never even left Washington. The official called it a “setback we were not expecting,” especially since Iran had previously signaled it was willing to negotiate. Now, with both sides digging in, the chances of a breakthrough look slim.
The conflict isn’t just confined to the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting a brutal second front in Lebanon, and the violence shows no signs of stopping. On Wednesday, an Israeli strike killed journalist Amal Khalil and injured photographer Zeinab Faraj in southern Lebanon. Lebanese state media said rescuers were blocked from reaching Khalil after a sound grenade was fired at them.
Israel denied preventing access, but the incident has only added to the mounting death toll. Lebanese authorities say at least 2,454 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the war began. Lebanon and Israel are now preparing for negotiations, which would be significant since the two countries don’t even have diplomatic relations. Israel has invaded Lebanon multiple times, and Hezbollah has fired rockets into Israel so it’s hard to imagine these talks will go smoothly.
Meanwhile, the economic damage keeps piling up
Countries in Asia that rely on Gulf oil are facing fuel and fertilizer shortages, and even the West, which is better insulated, isn’t immune. If the strait stays closed, the global economy could be in for a long, painful downturn.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal during his first term didn’t help. The pact, signed under Barack Obama, was meant to limit Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump hated it and was pushed by Israel to take a harder line. Now, years later, we’re seeing the consequences of that decision play out in real time. The chaos Trump promised wouldn’t happen is here, and it’s not just Iran and the U.S. but the whole world that’s paying the price.
(Featured image: NAVCENT Public Affairs)
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