Is the U.S. heading toward a recession? Here’s what Donald Trump thinks

President Donald Trump has been staunchly defensive about his tariffs against U.S. allies and foes alike. But amid his tariff giveaway, citizens fear that the United States will enter a recession.

In an interview with Maria Bartiromo from Fox News, Trump was reluctant to predict the future of an economy under his leadership. “There are rising worries about a slowdown. You’ve got the Atlantic Federal Reserve saying that we’re gonna have a contraction in the first quarter,” Bartiromo prefaced to Trump. She softened the blow by acknowledging that Trump “inherited a mess” from Joe Biden, before asking the important question. “Are you expecting a recession this year?”

Trump replied, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back into America.” The latter half seemed to be a justification for the raising prices on basic commodities. It also appeared to be Trump’s defense for his economic policies against trading partners of the United States.

“The tariffs could go up as time goes by,” Trump added, then accused other countries of “ripping off” the United States. Regardless, the president didn’t set expectations for what his economy would look like. He made promises of wealth and helping car makers through tariffs while ignoring the falling stock market and rising inflation.

So, are we skipping to the bad part?

According to Macroeconomics by Professor Gregory Mankiw, an economy is in recession once it experiences “a period of falling output and rising unemployment.” Aside from layoffs, rising inflation has also been cited as an indicator of a recession.

So far, the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.1% after President Trump took office. Despite that, 151,000 jobs have been added by American employers. Nevertheless, the effects of the federal budget cuts, mass deportations, and a fealty to tariffs are expected to spillover to the private sector. While egg prices have soared due to bird flu, the consumer price index lowered from 3% to 2.8% in February. Whether inflation can go lower is uncertain, given Trump’s new tariffs on Canada.

In any case, it’s still too soon to say whether the United States economy will head to a recession. This conclusion doesn’t do much to reassure Americans, who fear the effects of Trump’s policies in the long term.