Like a particularly perceptive alien species, Google has gone from observing human behavior to predicting it, with a new study, Quantifying Movie Magic With Google Search. Â The study suggests that, with Google searches for movies on the rise (up 56% despite a 9% decline in the overall number of movies out in from 2011 to 2012) Google has the data to predict, even with 94% accuracy, how much a movie will gross at the box office. Â The calculations are based on a number of types of searches, from trailers to reviews to the number of queries on a specific movie leading up to its release. Â This study could show companies what to do to keep their movies in our minds before and during opening week, and is also quite a significant indicator of how much we rely on Google for our entertainment choices.
According to the study, Google can use different types of searches to predict movie success. Â Query volume for a specific movie can be taken into consideration, for instance, to arrive at a 90% to 92% accurate prediction of how much money a film will make. Â Meanwhile, trailer search volume can predict box office success of a film on opening weekend with up to 94% accuracy, if the season and the franchise of the movie are taken into account. Â Interestingly, the trailer calculation is most accurate when data from four weeks before the film’s release is used, suggesting that anticipation for a movie is just as important as the snap judgement of what to see.
On conducting the study, Google had this to say:
“The quest to quantify movie magic is certainly not a new concept. Â Pre-release tracking has been around for decades, however, traditional approaches have recently come under scrutiny. Â With the increasing amount of information and media influences available, there are more factors that should be considered. “
Perhaps the most interesting part of Quantifying Movie Magic With Google Search is that it suggests itself as a new tool for understanding movie-goers, stating:
“Since 48% of moviegoers decide what film to watch the day they purchase their ticket, it’s important to have a continued search presence through opening weekend and beyond.”
Obviously, the film in question’s notability or connection to a franchise is a big part of it’s google search results. Â This study takes that information, and gives us a new perspective on it. Â Our googling habits could give Google and Hollywood a new way of predicting and understanding what we want to watch. Â On the other hand, this study could just mean more sequels, given that franchise and season play into the results. Â I personally would be interested to see the system implemented and tested, and to compare the predictions to preliminary reviews of the films tested. Â It’s also quite interesting to note that Google found that most moviegoers make their viewing judgement the day of, since we’ve seen so many preordering, mid-night premier movies, from Harry Potter to The Hunger Games, in some of the most talked about movies of the past couple of years. Â I wonder how The Internship shapes up against Google’s prediction system?
(via Film via Google Inside Adwords, Google Think Insights, Quantifying Movie Magic With Google Search, image via Google Doodle)
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