The Mandalorian & Grogu Sets an Unwanted Star Wars Record the Franchise May Just Have to Accept

Star Wars’ long-awaited return to the big screen has ended up in the record books for all the wrong reasons. The Mandalorian & Grogu, the franchise’s first theatrical outing in seven years, is all but guaranteed to finish its run as the lowest-grossing live-action Star Wars film ever made, slipping below the previous holder of that unwanted title, 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story. More worryingly for Lucasfilm and parent company Disney, given the direction the franchise is heading, it’s a result the space saga may simply have to learn to live with.

The release of The Mandalorian & Grogu came after several years of announcements and cancellations under former Lucasfilm president Kathleen Kennedy, as the once-mighty box office juggernaut struggled to get a new movie off the ground. The film is a continuation of the popular Disney+ series, with Pedro Pascal’s Din Djarin and his Jedi-in-the-making sidekick Grogu leading a new wave of Star Wars films into cinemas for the first time since the sequel trilogy ended with The Rise of Skywalker in 2019.

Released over Memorial Day weekend, The Mandalorian & Grogu opened above expectations with $81.9 million domestically and around $165 million worldwide. A brutal 72% second-weekend drop prevented the film from making the most of it, and as it enters its final stretch in theaters, a $350 million total is looking all but certain. Solo made $392.9 million by the end of its run, and we all know the impact that movie had on future plans for the franchise.

One small silver lining for Lucasfilm is that they seem to have learned at least one thing from Solo: not to blow a $300 million budget on a movie that may not perform well enough to recoup its losses. The Mandalorian & Grogu reportedly held its costs to around $165 million (including a $21 million Los Angeles tax credit). This will still mean a loss at the box office, but that is only part of the story. Merchandising, licences, and healthy ad revenue when the film finally lands on Disney+ will all add to the total and make it a long-term earner for the House of Mouse.

The Mandalorian & Grogu Could Have Proven Even Star Wars Hits Aren’t Certain Anymore

However, the failure of The Mandalorian & Grogu to capitalise on a drought of Star Wars movies is still worrying for not only this franchise but all big blockbusters. Domestically, the film was overtaken by not one but two micro-budget horror movies — Obsession, made for a reported $750,000, and Backrooms, made for $10 million, both of which have performed remarkably well against their tiny budgets.

The bigger question is why, and the answer is exactly why the franchise may have to get used to numbers like these. Seven years of Star Wars streaming shows — many of them divisive — have diluted the sense that a new Star Wars story is a must-see big-screen event. With audiences knowing full well the film will land on Disney+ before long, fewer feel any urgency to buy a cinema ticket, especially since the third season of The Mandalorian had already started to lose the interest of some fans.

All of that is a little concerning given what’s coming. The road ahead is not only crowded but largely disconnected from the original saga. For many years, everyone said the Star Wars franchise relied too much on the nostalgia of the Skywalker Saga. Now there is a question of whether the simple fact is that Star Wars is the Skywalker Saga, and everything else is just padding. We will see how much truth there is in that over the next few years.

The Star Wars Franchise Is Heading into a New Era

Shawn Levy’s Starfighter, due in May 2027, is a standalone story with all-new characters set five years after The Rise of Skywalker, while a Rey-led New Jedi Order film, Dave Filoni’s Mandoverse crossover and James Mangold’s Dawn of the Jedi — set 25,000 years in the past — are all in active development. With several other projects, like Patty Jenkins’ Rogue Squadron and Taika Waititi’s offering to the franchise, either canceled or in limbo, the future direction of Star Wars will likely be decided by how audiences react to the next few movies.

All of this arrives at a pivotal moment behind the scenes. After more than a decade steering the franchise, Kathleen Kennedy stepped down as Lucasfilm president, with chief creative officer Dave Filoni and studio veteran Lynwen Brennan taking over as the company’s new leadership. As the brains behind the “Mandoverse,” Filoni seemed like the perfect choice to lead Star Wars back to the big screen with a whole new set of stories and eras to explore. The disconnect of The Mandalorian & Grogu does put a bit of a cloud over things, though. Filoni, for all his knowledge and time spent working on the franchise, could end up as much a hindrance as a help.

As James Gunn has discovered as head of DC Studios, there is a big difference between creating and directing one or two projects and the challenge of overseeing everything. While he has yet to get his feet fully under the table, Filoni’s job ahead is not going to be an easy one by any means.

In the end, though, Star Wars isn’t going anywhere; merchandising and streaming keep it enormously valuable. But we are now in an era when a big IP name no longer guarantees box office supremacy, and that could mean Lucasfilm faces the challenge of making movies people feel a real need to see in cinemas. Can Ryan Gosling continue his recent run of theatrical hits and make Starfighter the kind of movie Star Wars needs? We’ll find out when the film opens next summer.

(featured image: Disney+)

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