Spider-Man: Brand New Day Projecting One of Marvel’s Biggest Opening Weekends Ever

Spider-Man is on course to remind the world that superhero fatigue is just a passing fad, and the genre can still deliver some of the biggest wins in Hollywood. With just under a month to go until its release, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is now tracking for an amazing opening weekend that will instantly put it among the biggest movies of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and easily bypass 2023’s Deadpool & Wolverine to become the highest grossing MCU offering since Spider-Man: No Way Home in 2021.

According to long-range tracking from Box Office Theory, Brand New Day is projected to open to around $228 million domestically. That figure sits within a wide forecast range — a low-end of roughly $212 million and a ceiling that could push it to within touching distance of Holland’s last outing at $255 million. Some other tracking sites have even pegged it as having the potential to top No Way Home‘s $260 million, but that seems a little adventurous considering the massive hype around that multiverse-spanning film.

As always, projections a month out can be volatile and shift up and down as fans pre-book tickets and discuss the film and their viewing intentions in the coming weeks. While other movies have already failed to hit their projections this year, it is a fair bet that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will not be one of them and will end up as the dominant force of the summer despite competition from Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

A $228 million start would make Brand New Day only the seventh MCU film ever to open above $200 million, joining an elite group made up of The Avengers, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther, Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine. It would also slot in as the second-biggest opening of the entire Multiverse Saga, landing neatly between No Way Home‘s $260 million and Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $211 million.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is Already Breaking Records

Brand New Day has already made headlines when it posted the strongest first-day US presales of any film in five years — a record previously held by No Way Home itself — with domestic presales already surging past $40 million. Fandango confirmed it became the platform’s biggest first-day pre-sale of 2026, outpacing The Odyssey, and will likely hold that record until Marvel Studios returns with Avengers: Doomsday in December.

Where it goes from its opening weekend will end up being the defining factor in just how big the movie becomes. Based on Spider-Man’s impressive run the MCU, and even allowing a little for the Tobey Maguire/Andrew Garfield hype around No Way Home, Brand New Day looks all but certain to overtake Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $1.34 billion global haul, and it’s essentially guaranteed to clear $1 billion worldwide.

Toppling No Way Home‘s $1.91 billion, however, feels like a stretch. That film was a genuine cultural phenomenon powered by the once-in-a-lifetime return of Maguire and Garfield, as well as several villains from both actors’ respective movies. Brand New Day does not dabble in the multiverse again but does have some heavy hitters in its arsenal regardless.

Brand New Day Could Be an Amazing Spider-Man Movie

Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, Spider-Man: Brand New Day finds Peter Parker living anonymously in a New York that has forgotten him, four years on from No Way Home, as his powers begin a potentially dangerous evolution. Marvel Studios has been thankfully cagey about over-teasing the plot in the trailers – something that they did so beautifully in the run-up to Infinity War and Endgame – but we do know that Mark Ruffalo returns as Bruce Banner/Hulk and Jon Bernthal makes his MCU movie debut as Frank Castle/Punisher after his return to the role in Daredevil: Born Again and his Disney+ special, One Last Kill.

Several other plot points have been minorly teased, such as Michael Mando finally returning as the Scorpion – a post-credits tease from Spider-Man: Homecoming that some believed would never be paid off – and Sadie Sink’s mysterious character. In all though, there is a lot running in Brand New Day‘s favor. Spider-Man is still Marvel’s biggest and most profitable character. There are no certainties in Hollywood right now, but it is almost impossible to imagine a universe where Brand New Day does not live up to lofty expectations.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens in UK cinemas on July 29 and in the US on July 31.

(featured image: Sony Pictures)

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