House Republicans can’t meet their budget target without cutting Medicaid and Medicare after all
After Speaker of the House Mike Johnson insisted that the GOP budget resolution would not affect Medicaid and Medicare, the budget office confirmed that Republicans cannot meet their budget target without cutting these Programs.
The GOP’s budget resolution, which aligns with President Donald Trump’s agenda, narrowly passed the House recently, though it failed to receive a single vote from Democrats. Much misinformation has spread about the resolution, including conservatives’ false claims that it included no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security. The most controversial aspect of the bill is that it directs the committee overseeing Medicaid and Medicare to procure $880 billion in spending cuts, perfectly laying the framework for conservatives to cut these vital social programs. Potential cuts would be devastating and cost the coverage of millions of Americans nationwide.
However, Johnson and Trump repeatedly insisted that they had no intention of cutting Medicaid and Medicare. Johnson recently told CNN, “The president said over and over and over, ‘We’re not going to touch Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.’ We’ve made the same commitment.” Despite his alleged “commitment” to protecting Medicare and Medicaid, Johnson strangely refused to amend the budget resolution to officially enshrine these protections. Hence, Democrats continued warning about the cuts while Johnson and Republicans gaslit them, insisting it wouldn’t happen. It turns out the Democrats were right after all.
Republicans’ budget resolution doesn’t work without cuts to Medicaid and Medicare
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently reviewed the Republicans’ budget resolution and found that its target budget is impossible unless it cuts Medicaid and Medicare. As mentioned above, the resolution directs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees the programs, to find $880 billion in cuts. The only problem is that Medicaid accounts for much of the committee’s overall funding. The Budget Office found that the committee’s total spending from 2025 – 2034 is projected to be $8.8 trillion. Of that $8.8 trillion, Medicaid accounts for $8.2 trillion, or 93%. Ultimately, if both Medicaid and Medicare are spared, the committee will have just $581 billion in total spending to work with, significantly less than its whopping $880 billion target.
It remains to be seen how Republicans will respond now that they cannot claim their bill won’t touch Medicaid unless they change their budget target. However, changing the target will run afoul of Elon Musk, Trump, and the rest of MAGA, with their determination to find massive cuts in government spending. For Democrats, the Budget Office’s findings merely confirm what they’ve been saying all along – that the GOP was always planning to significantly cut programs like Medicaid, most likely to make room for tax breaks for billionaires. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said the findings “confirmed what we have long understood to be the case with the reckless Republican budget. Republicans are trying to rip healthcare away from tens of millions of Americans.”
Indeed, Democrats repeatedly warned of Republicans’ plans, but many refused to listen. During Trump’s address to Congress, Rep. Al Green stood alone in protest as he cried, “You have no mandate to cut Medicaid!” Later, Johnson pursued a censure vote against Green, which passed with Republican support, as well as the votes of 10 Democrats. It’s unclear if Johnson already knew at this point that Green’s words were true. Did Republicans always know that the math didn’t work out? Regardless, a representative has been censured for trying to tell Americans what has been proven to be true.
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